Wildfire Science
RESOURCES is a collated set of relevant information covering four categories of interrelated and interconnected research, articles and studies.
SAFRR recognizes the escalating impacts of climate driven wildfires and ember storms, and advocates for sound land use policies that are protective of both first responder and public safety.
Throughout his book, “Fire Weather - On the Front Lines of a Burning World,” John Vaillant describes the Lucretius Problem - a cognitive bias in human perception observed by Titus Lucretius Carus- a Roman philosopher. This bias is rooted in the difficulty humans have imagining and assimilating things outside their own personal experience; thus, we assume that the worst event that has already happened is the worst event that can ever happen.
CalFire’s 2025 updated Tables of the Largest, Deadliest, and Most Destructive Wildfires show this clear trend – the Tables demonstrate that California’s risk of wildfire catastrophe, in terms of loss of life and property, has accelerated.
While the January 2025 Los Angeles fires changed the historical statistics, it’s best not to assume 2025 will be the worst firestorms ever. Emerging science shows a drastic change in fire weather - fires are moving at fearsome rates now.
Another major factor in increased conflagrations relates to land use patterns – 59 % of housing stock in the US is now located in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). Given human activity starts 95 % of wildfires, research reveals that the majority of fires on wildlands, managed by the US Forest Service, were started by human activity as well.
Built to Burn by Yap, T. et al. Center for
Biological Diversity. (February 2021).
Wildfire Science
Wildfire Science is an emerging field as changes in climate and land use patterns amplify catastrophic losses.
Technical Articles and Reports
Built to Burn. California’s Wildlands Developments Are Playing With Fire - Bold Land-use Reforms Needed Now to Ensure Safer, Sustainable Future. Yap, T. et al. Center for Biological Diversity. (February, 2021)
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Statistics:
CalFire LRA and Hazard Maps Legislation Factsheets Combined 2025.
CalFire’s predictions didn’t foresee the Altadena inferno. Now it’s changing it’s fire-hazard maps. Haggerty, N. et al. Los Angeles Times. (February 4 2025).
Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance. National Institute of Standards and Technology - NIST Technical Note 2105.(August 2020).
Case Study of the Camp Fire: Notification, Evacuation, Traffic, and Temporary Refuge Areas. National Institute of Standards and Technology - NIST Technical Note 2252. (July 2023).
Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling. Proceedings of the Second Conference on the Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire GTR-NRS-P-84. USDA 14 Rice, C. (2010).
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California. Goss, M. Environmental Research Letters 15 094016. (2020).
Common Misconceptions about Role of Fire Hydrants in Wildland Firefighting Efforts. Woodside Fire Department Press Release. (February 2025).
Conservation Threats Due to Human Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean Climate Ecosystems. Syphard, A. et al. Conservation Biology. (2009).
Contemporary Wildfire Hazard Across California. USDA Forest Service. Volger, K. et al. (2021).
FIRESCOPE Call to Action: Review the effectiveness and stressors of the California Fire/Rescue response system. FIRESCOPE. (Draft 2025).
Fire, Chaparral, and Survival in Southern California. Halsey, Richard. Sunbelt Publications. (2008).
Fire Management and Policy Since European Settlement. Stephens, S. and Sugihara, N. Fire In California’s Ecosystems Chapter 18. (2006).
Fire Weather - On the Front Lines of a Burning World. Vaillant, J. Knopf Press. (2023).
Historic fire regime in southern California shrublands. Keeley, J. E., Fotheringham, C. J. Conservation Biology, 15(6), 1536–1548. (2001).
How We Start Unintentional Wildfires on U.S. Forest Service Lands from 2000-2022: Number of ignitions, acres burned and cause. U.S Forest Service.
Human influence on California fire regimes. Syphard, A. D., et al. Ecological Society of America, 17(5), 1388–1402. (2007).
IBHS (Insurance Institute of Business and Home Safety) Fire Behavior Triangle: Wildfire Primer Series Part 1. (2020).
IBHS LA County Wildfires Early Insights (January 2025).
IBHS LA Fires Early Field Observations. (March 2025).
IBHS Lahaina From Conflagration to Resilience - Full Policy Paper. (2024).
IBHS The 2023 Lahaina Conflagration. (2024).
IBHS Noncombustible Zone 0 Ember Zone. (2023).
IBHS Resilient Building: A Path Forward for Los Angeles. (2025).
IBHS Risk Assessment, Loss Modeling, & Fire Simulations: Wildfire Primer Series Part 3. (2020).
IBHS Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Road Maps. (2021).
IBHS The Built Environment: Wildfire Primer Series Part 2. (2020).
IBHS The Return of Conflagration in Our Built Environment. (2023).
IBHS Wildland Fire Embers and Flames: Home Mitigations that Matter. (2020).
IBHS Wind Driven Building to Building Fire Spread. (July 2022).
Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers: Application to two rural communities using PERIL model. Mitchell, H. et al. Elsevier Safety Science 157 105914. (2023).
Nexus between wildfire climate change and population growth in California. Keeley, J., et al. Fremontia - Journal of the California Native Plant Society. (2020).
Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands. Stephens, S. L., et al. Forest Ecology and Management, 251(3), 205–216. (2007).
Redefining the wildfire problem and scaling solutions to meet the problem. Law, B. et al. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Vol 79. (2023).
The fastest growing and most destructive wildfires 2001 to 2020. Balch J., et al. Science 386. (2024).
The fires are moving much faster now. Balch and Bloemers. Washington Post Opinion. (January 2025).
The Fires Next Time. Duane, D. Wired Magazine. (November 2020).
The Future of Fire in California’s Ecosystems. In Fire in California’s Ecosystems. Sugihara, N. G., et al. (pp. 538–544). (2018).
The role of indigenous burning in land management. Kimmerer, R. W., Lake, F. K. Journal of Forestry, 99(11), 36–41. (2001).
The threat of wildfire is unique to cannabis among agricultural sectors in California. Dillis, C., et al. Ecosphere. (2022).
This data shows just how much faster California wildfires are getting and why that’s so dangerous. San Francisco Chronicle. Edwards, T. (October 2024).
Twenty-first century California, USA, wildfires: fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated fires. Keeley, J. E., Syphard, A. D. Fire Ecology, 15(24). (2019).
Two Experts Agree the way L.A. thinks about fires is all wrong. They explain how to do better. LA Times By T. Curwen. (February 14 2025).
Urban-wildland fires: How California and other regions of the US can learn from Australia. Stephens, S. L., et al. Environmental Research Letters, 4, 014010. (2009).
Wildfires as an ecosystem service. Pausas, J. and Keeley, J. The Ecological Society of America Frontiers in Eco Environ. (2019).
Wildfire Catastrophic Models Explained: Webinar Recordings. California Department of Insurance. (2025).