Evacuation Research
“There is no such thing as an orderly evacuation.” 85 lives lost in 2018 Camp Fire
Models that integrate wildfire speed with evacuation times (C. Rice and PERIL Framework) and “dire evacuation scenario” research (Dr. Cova et al) model the speed of the fire, the lead time and expected evacuation time. These studies are recommended additions to Emergency Traffic Evacuation Studies. (See Resources: Wildfire Science)
Emergency Traffic Evacuation (ETE) Studies
Doug Flaherty, a former southern California Fire Combat Battalion Chief, emphasized a “…need for Tahoe policy makers to provide better, more transparent public safety planning. Officials need to take a reality-based approach to land use planning decisions to help avoid issues experienced in other major wildfires.” Source: Tahoe Sierra Clean Air Coalition (DBA Tahoe Clean Air.org)
Why proactive evacuation planning and ETE studies matter
ETE studies study various scenarios to define risks associated with mobilization time, levels of traffic flow as compared to the capacity of roadways and intersections, evacuation route alternatives, and required transit accommodations for vulnerable citizens. These studies provide the quantitative methodology that allows communities to plan for development and necessary road infrastructure to support public safety during an evacuation.
Fire modeling, dire scenario planning, and ETE studies are critical inputs to land use development decisions. Recent “Community Burn Over” tragedies resulted in significant loss of life - wildlife, plants, livestock, and pets - in addition to human life: (85 souls were lost in Paradise, CA 2018 Camp Fire and 102+ souls lost in Lahaina, HI 2023 Maui Fires)
AB 747 2019 Required evacuation planning in existing communities General Plan Safety Element. Bill Text. Levine. (2019).
A Case Study of the Camp Fire: Notification, Evacuation, Traffic, and Temporary Refuge Areas. National Institute of Standards and Technology - NIST Technical Note 2252. (July 2023).
Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance. National Institute of Standards and Technology - NIST Technical Note 2105. (August 2020).
Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling. Proceedings of the Second Conference on the Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire GTR-NRS-P-84. USDA 14 Rice, C. (2010).
ETE Studies as of 1st Q 2025:
Ashland, Oregon ETE: KLD Consultants - Public Agency Funded
Oakmont Retirement Community - Sonoma, CA ETE: KLD Consultants - Private Funding
Sonoma Area Fire Evacuation Study ETE: KLD Consultants - Community Funded
Tahoe Basin, CA/NV Border ETE- PyroAnalysis Consultants - Community Funded
ETE Studies - NEW 2025: (Coming Soon)
Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers: Application to two rural communities using PERIL model. Mitchell, H. et al. Elsevier Safety Science 157 105914. (2023).
Marin County Evacuation Risk-Planning Tool: science-based decision support. Marin County. Technical Report. (2022)
Should Fire Prone Communities Have a Maximum Occupancy? Cova, T. Natural Hazards Review DOI. (2005).
Toward Simulating Dire Wildfire Scenarios. Cova, T. et al. Natural Hazards Review 22(3). (2021).
